INNOVATIVE RESILIENCE: ASSESSING VACCINE PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE DURING THE PANDEMIC THROUGH ALTERNATIVE DATA SOURCES

Abstract

This study investigates the investment potential of vaccine-developing companies during the COVID-19 pandemic by comparing two portfolios: one weighted by public sentiment (via Google Trends data) and an equal-weighted portfolio. The study analyzes daily stock data from Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson, Moderna, AstraZeneca, and Novavax between 2020 and 2023, benchmarking performance against the S&P 500. Results show that the trends-informed portfolio achieved a 67.8% annualized return, significantly outperforming the market’s 7.9%, though with higher volatility. The statistically significant difference in returns (p-value: 0.046) against the benchmark highlights the potential of sentiment-driven strategies. However, no significant difference in returns was found between the two vaccine portfolios (p-value: 0.331). These findings suggest that biomedical stocks demonstrate resilience during crises, and that alternative data, such as public interest, can enhance portfolio construction in times of heightened sector focus, but future research is required.